US MBA Admissions Trends Analysis Utilizing ChatGPT, Claude, and Perplexity
Apr, 21, 2026
Categories: Admissions Consulting | Advice
METHOD AND INITIAL PROMPT
ADAM:
I wanted to analyze US MBA admissions trends since 2010. Rather than try to do this myself, I initially asked ChatGPT and Perplexity the following:
“Using the latest data on the number of MBA applications to schools in the US please create tables that show trends between 2010 and the present. Factor GMAT and GRE test taking into consideration. I want a macro level analysis utilizing data from Open Doors, GMAC, Poets & Quants, and other primary sources or top level educational publications such as INSIDE HIGHER ED and the CHRONICLE OF HIGHER EDUCATION. Avoid referring to websites run by admissions consultants, test prep companies, and other tertiary sources of information. I am particularly interested in answering the following questions: What do you recent trends show about the level of interest in applying to MBA programs? Which schools have seen rates decline and which have seen rates ascend? Has the percentage of female students changed over time? How about international students: Numbers applying? From which countries? What are the international percentages at the programs P&Q identifies as the top US schools?”
I then used Claude to correct and consolidate their analysis. It is not a happy story, but I think this is a good guide to reality.
Below is the result. My opinions have been added in (Adam: …)
Claude: I’ve reviewed both the ChatGPT and Perplexity responses against the GMAC Application Trends Survey data, Poets & Quants reporting, and other primary sources from your search results. Below is a corrected and consolidated analysis.
Executive Summary
MBA application trends over the past 15 years show a complex pattern: cyclical surges during economic downturns (2008–09 financial crisis, COVID-19 pandemic), a pronounced post-pandemic decline in 2022–2023, a strong recovery in 2024, and now a sharp downturn in the 2025–2026 cycle—particularly among international applicants to U.S. programs. The current decline is unprecedented in that it occurs despite economic uncertainty, which historically drives applicants toward graduate school.
ADAM: It was always this case that economic uncertainty has led to increased application to graduate school. I think it is safe to assume that the impact of AI on potential applicant’s negative perceptions of long term trends in the job market is directly disrupting this. Combine this visa and job concerns for international applicants for not only US, but the UK and Canada as well and the downward trend is clear enough.
Table 1: Overall MBA Application Volume Trends (2010–2025)
| Period | Trend | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| 2008–2011 | Surge | Financial crisis drove professionals to grad school as job market contracted |
| 2012–2019 | Gradual decline | Strong job market, rising tuition, ROI concerns, growth of specialized masters |
| 2020–2021 | Sharp surge | COVID-19 pandemic, GMAT/GRE test-optional policies, economic uncertainty |
| 2022–2023 | Decline | Post-pandemic normalization; 2022 (−3%), 2023 (−5%) per GMAC |
| 2024 | Strong recovery | +12% year-over-year across all GME programs per GMAC |
| 2025 | Continued growth globally (+7%) but U.S. programs declining sharply | Full-time in-person programs driving growth; international apps shifting away from U.S., U.K., Canada toward Asia and continental Europe |
Sources: GMAC Application Trends Surveys 2021–2025
Table 2: U.S. MBA Program Application Changes (2025–2026 Cycle)
The 2025–2026 application cycle shows unprecedented declines at U.S. schools, concentrated among international applicants.
| Program Tier | Total Change | International Change | Domestic Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top 10 MBA program (anonymous) | −30% | Not disclosed separately | — |
| Top 20 MBA program (anonymous) | — | −43% | −11% |
| Highly ranked second-tier school | −20%+ | — | — |
Source: Poets & Quants, February 2026, citing confidential admissions officials
Critical Correction: ChatGPT and Perplexity both referenced older cycle data (2023–2024) as if it were current. The latest data from the 2025–2026 cycle shows a reversal of the recovery seen in 2024, with declines of 20–30% at leading U.S. programs.
ADAM: The above data from P&Q aligns with my perceptions of what is going on.
Table 3: International Student Representation at Top U.S. MBA Programs (2023–2025)
| School | 2025 Int’l % | 2024 Int’l % | 2023 Int’l % | Change 2023→2025 |
| Columbia | 41% | 46% | 47% | −6% |
| Georgetown McDonough | 44% | 49% | 59% | −15% |
| UCLA Anderson | 35% | 41% | 47% | −12% |
| Carnegie Mellon Tepper | 37% | 39% | 53% | −16% |
| Duke Fuqua | 38% | 41% | 47% | −9% |
| Indiana Kelley | 42% | 46% | 58% | −16% |
| Emory Goizueta | 36% | 45% | 48% | −12% |
| Michigan Ross | 40% | 44% | 43% | −3% |
| Northwestern Kellogg | 37% | 40% | 39% | −2% |
| Stanford GSB | 38% | 39% | 36% | +2% |
| Wharton | 26% | 31% | 31% | −5% |
| Dartmouth Tuck | 25% | 30% | 33% | −8% |
| UNC Kenan-Flagler | 35% | 43% | 34% | +1% |
| Vanderbilt Owen | 29% | 30% | 29% | 0% |
Source: Business schools, as reported by Poets & Quants, February 2026
Key Finding: The declines are steepest at programs that historically enrolled the highest percentages of international students (Georgetown, Tepper, Kelley, UCLA Anderson).
ADAM: The schools that are showing the highest levels of decline are the ones I am generally finding fewer international clients are interested in applying to. I also this creates an opportunity for applicants to those very schools. However we also be seeing an intentional correction by admissions offices to “right size” their percentage of international students so that they don’t have a negative impact on post-MBA job placement. I would not be surprised if Wharton is intentionally lowering its international student percentage because its admissions decisions are especially subject to their focus on post-MBA employability. What does mean is that Wharton might be getting significantly harder for international students to get into even if the total number of applicants is going down. However that is just a guess.
Table 4: GMAT and GRE Test-Taking Trends
| Year | GMAT Exams Taken (approx.) | GRE General Test Takers (approx.) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010–2012 | ~265,000–270,000/year | ~675,000/year | GRE revised in 2011 |
| 2013–2018 | Gradual decline in GMAT | GRE gaining acceptance at MBA programs | |
| 2019 | ~209,000 | ~700,000+ | Pre-pandemic baseline |
| 2020–2021 | Sharp drop (testing centers closed) | Sharp drop | Test-optional policies widespread |
| 2022–2023 | Recovery begins; GMAT Focus Edition launches (Nov 2023) | Stable | Fewer schools test-optional |
| 2024–2025 | H-1B registrations down 27% (FY25→FY26) | — | Immigration uncertainty suppresses test demand from international candidates |
Sources: GMAC, ETS, USCIS data cited in search results
Important Context: The 27% decline in H-1B registrations (from 470,342 in FY2025 to 343,981 in FY2026) signals reduced confidence among international students that a U.S. MBA will lead to U.S. employment.
ADAM: The context issue just mentioned is certainly something I see with prospective as my own clients and former clients. Going to the US for an MBA is now looking much more risky. Hence prospects and clients increasingly focus only on M7, HSW, or perhaps Top 10, but increasingly can’t justify applying to schools that were previously considered worth attending for a future career in the US. This is the perception I am encountering very frequently, especially amongst my Indian clients.
Table 5: Female Applicant Representation Trends
| Period | MBA Programs | Business Masters Programs | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010–2014 | ~35–37% | Higher (~45–50%) | Persistent gap |
| 2015–2019 | ~38–39% | ~48–50% | Gradual improvement |
| 2020–2024 | ~40–42% | Near parity in some programs | Consortium/Forté initiatives |
| 2025 | Women’s applications outpaced men’s growth rate | Just below parity overall; declining in accounting and finance | GMAC 2025: >50% of full-time MBA programs reported growth in women’s apps |
Source: GMAC Application Trends Survey 2025
Correction: Both ChatGPT and Perplexity correctly noted progress toward gender parity but missed the 2025 finding that women’s application growth outpaced men’s for the first time.
ADAM: The advantage of being a female applicant decreases as the percentage of females at MBA programs increases. Given that female college graduates are outpacing male college graduates in the US, this trend makes demographic sense.
Table 6: Geographic Shifts in International Applications (2025)
| Region | Application Trend | Key Factors |
| United States | Declining (international apps down 20–43% at individual schools) | Visa delays, H-1B uncertainty, OPT threats, hostile political rhetoric |
| United Kingdom | Declining | Visa restrictions, cost concerns |
| Canada | Declining | International student cap policies |
| Asia (excl. China) | Surging | India seeing double-digit growth; clearer work pathways |
| Continental Europe | Surging | Perceived stability, post-study work options |
Sources: GMAC 2025, Poets & Quants, Reuters, IIE data cited in search results
ADAM: I work with Indians who go to ISB and whose ROI on their degree is extremely high. Hence the above makes sense to me.
Table 7: Top Source Countries for International MBA Students in U.S. (Historical)
| Rank | Country | Trend (2015–2025) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | India | Historically largest source; now redirecting to domestic programs and Europe |
| 2 | China | Peaked ~2019; declining due to geopolitics, domestic options |
| 3 | South Korea | Stable to declining |
| 4 | Taiwan | Stable |
| 5 | Canada | Stable |
| 6 | Brazil | Variable |
| 7 | Nigeria | Growing |
| 8 | Mexico | Stable |
Note: Precise 2025 country-level data for MBA specifically was not available in the search results. Open Doors reports aggregate international student data but does not break out MBA programs separately.
Corrections to ChatGPT and Perplexity Responses
ChatGPT Errors and Omissions
- Outdated data presented as current: ChatGPT’s tables showed 2023–2024 cycle data without acknowledging the 2025–2026 cycle downturn.
- Missing the February 2026 reporting: The Poets & Quants article from February 2026 (in your search results) reveals current cycle declines of 20–30% at top programs—a critical data point ChatGPT did not have.
- Underestimated policy impact: ChatGPT mentioned immigration concerns but did not quantify the H-1B registration decline (−27%) or the 17% drop in newly enrolled international students (IIE data).
- School-level data incomplete: ChatGPT did not include the granular school-by-school international percentage table from P&Q.
Perplexity Errors and Omissions
- Similar currency issues: Perplexity also lacked the February 2026 cycle data showing the sharp U.S. downturn.
- Geographic shift underemphasized: The GMAC 2025 data clearly shows international applications flowing away from the U.S./U.K./Canada and toward Asia and continental Europe—a structural shift, not just a fluctuation.
- Conflated global and U.S. trends: GMAC reports +7% global growth in 2025, but this masks significant divergence: U.S. programs are declining while Asian programs surge. Both AI responses did not clearly separate these trends.
ADAM: I think we will likely have much more negative data once the full impact of Trump’s visa policies are calculated. It already looks pretty bad. See https://thepienews.com/us-visa-refusals-hit-decade-high/.
Key Findings and Conclusions
1. Recent Trends Show Bifurcated Interest
- Globally: MBA applications grew 7% in 2025 after 12% growth in 2024, driven by full-time, in-person programs.
- In the U.S.: The current 2025–2026 cycle is showing 20–30% declines, concentrated in international applicants, reversing the 2024 recovery.
2. Which Schools Are Declining vs. Ascending?
Declining (U.S.):
- Programs with historically high international enrollment (Georgetown, Tepper, Kelley, UCLA Anderson, Emory)
- Declines of 10–16 percentage points in international enrollment 2023→2025
Ascending (Globally):
- Asian business schools (India, Singapore, Hong Kong)
- Continental European programs (strong growth in international apps)
Relatively Stable (U.S.):
- Stanford GSB (+2 pp international), Vanderbilt Owen (flat)
3. Female Representation
- Gradually improved from ~35% (2010) to ~40–42% (2024)
- In 2025, women’s MBA applications grew faster than men’s for the first time
- Business masters programs near parity, though accounting/finance declining
4. International Students
- Numbers applying: Sharply down at U.S. programs (−43% at one Top 20 school; national new enrollment −17% in 2025)
- Country shifts: India and China historically dominant; both now redirecting to domestic options and non-U.S. destinations
- Top U.S. program international %: Ranges from 25% (Tuck) to 44% (Georgetown) in 2025, down from 29%–59% range in 2023
5. Root Causes of U.S. Decline
The search results identify a policy-driven exodus:
- H-1B visa registrations down 27%
- OPT program under threat
- Visa delays and denials increasing
- Hostile political rhetoric creating “unwelcome” perception
- Rising fees and restrictions
This represents a structural break, not a cyclical fluctuation. As one admissions official told P&Q: the flow of global candidates “is weakening at every stage.”
ADAM: I agree with the above. We are going through something that is not cyclical, but fundamental and it is unclear what the “new normal” will look like.
Data Limitations and Gaps
- Open Doors data: Reports aggregate international student numbers but does not isolate MBA programs; precise MBA-specific country-of-origin data unavailable in search results.
- School-by-school application numbers: Most schools do not publicly release application counts; trend data relies on GMAC surveys and confidential reporting to P&Q.
- Real-time 2025–2026 cycle: Round 3 data not yet available; final enrollment figures will not be known until fall 2026.
- GMAT/GRE trends: Test-optional policies disrupted the historical correlation between test-taking and application volumes.
Recommended Primary Sources for Further Research
| Source | What It Provides | URL |
|---|---|---|
| GMAC Application Trends Survey | Annual survey of 1,100+ programs globally | gmac.com/applicationtrends |
| IIE Open Doors Report | International student enrollment in U.S. (all fields) | opendoorsdata.org |
| USCIS H-1B Data | Visa registration and approval trends | uscis.gov |
| Poets & Quants | School-level reporting, class profiles | poetsandquants.com |
| Inside Higher Ed | Policy analysis, institutional reporting | insidehighered.com |
| Chronicle of Higher Education | Long-form analysis | chronicle.com |
This consolidated analysis incorporates data from the GMAC Application Trends Survey 2025, Poets & Quants reporting (February 2026), IIE, USCIS, and other sources provided in the search results. It corrects for recency gaps in both AI-generated responses and provides source attribution throughout.